Tony Bezzina Stadium · Analysis updated 14:04 UTC
Floriana vs Zabbar St. Patrick Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.44 expected goals for Floriana and 1.05 for Zabbar St. Patrick, a combined total of 3.49. That distribution gives Floriana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Floriana win
67.8% probability
Expected goals
2.44 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Floriana home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zabbar St. Patrick away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Floriana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 18% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.44 goals for Floriana and 1.05 for Zabbar St. Patrick, a combined 3.49 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 2–09.1%
- 1–17.8%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–07.4%
Recent form
Floriana
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Balzan FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hibernians · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Marsaxlokk · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Valletta FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Gzira United · 4-1 (W)
Zabbar St. Patrick
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Marsaxlokk · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Birkirkara · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gzira United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Hamrun Spartans · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Hibernians · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valletta FC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | Marsaxlokk | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 3 | Floriana | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 4 | Mosta | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Hamrun Spartans | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Sliema Wanderers | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Balzan FC | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Birkirkara | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Hibernians | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Zabbar St. Patrick | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 11 | Gzira United | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -11 | 4 |
| 12 | Birzebbuga | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Floriana win, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.