· Analysis updated 22:12 UTC
Flota Świnoujście vs Victoria Września Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Flota Świnoujście and 0.99 for Victoria Września, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Flota Świnoujście the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Flota Świnoujście win
48.9% probability
Expected goals
1.49 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Flota Świnoujście home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Victoria Września away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Flota Świnoujście to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 26% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for Flota Świnoujście and 0.99 for Victoria Września, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.5%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–09.3%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–08.3%
Recent form
Flota Świnoujście
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Noteć Czarnków · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Unia Swarzędz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Grom Nowy Staw · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gedania Gdansk · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lipno Stęszew · 3-1 (W)
Victoria Września
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Noteć Czarnków · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Unia Swarzędz · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Grom Nowy Staw · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gedania Gdansk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lipno Stęszew · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polonia Środa | 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 34 |
| 2 | Luzino | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 28 |
| 3 | Wda Świecie | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 27 |
| 4 | Kluczevia Stargard | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 23 |
| 5 | Stargard Szczeciński | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 22 |
| 6 | Lech Poznań II | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 21 |
| 7 | Noteć Czarnków | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Bałtyk Koszalin | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 19 |
| 9 | Elana Toruń | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 |
| 10 | Unia Swarzędz | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 18 |
| 11 | Gedania Gdansk | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 12 | Kalisz | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | -2 | 18 |
| 13 | Grom Nowy Staw | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -1 | 16 |
| 14 | Flota Świnoujście | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -7 | 15 |
| 15 | Chemik Bydgoszcz | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -9 | 12 |
| 16 | Victoria Września | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -12 | 12 |
| 17 | Lipno Stęszew | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -11 | 11 |
| 18 | Kotwica Kórnik | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -18 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Flota Świnoujście win, at 48.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.