Stadio Pino Zaccheria · Analysis updated 14:30 UTC
Foggia vs Cavese Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Foggia and 1.35 for Cavese, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Foggia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Foggia home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cavese away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Foggia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 25% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Foggia and 1.35 for Cavese, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–08.7%
- 1–27.9%
- 0–17.8%
Recent form
Foggia
- 2026-10-04T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Cosenza · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Sorrento · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter U23 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Savoia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs SS Monopoli · 0-1 (L)
Cavese
- 2026-10-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Barletta · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Casertana · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Savoia · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Potenza · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sorrento · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie C - Girone C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Potenza | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 22 |
| 2 | Bari | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 3 | Sorrento | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 4 | Catania | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 16 |
| 5 | Casertana | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Audace Cerignola | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Scafatese | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Salernitana | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | AZ Picerno | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | SS Monopoli | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Cavese | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Foggia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Casarano | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 | Inter U23 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 15 | Savoia | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 16 | Team Altamura | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 17 | Barletta | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 18 | Giugliano | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 19 | Cosenza | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 2 |
| 20 | Crotone | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.