Foggia vs Salernitana Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.14 expected goals for Foggia and 1.22 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.36. That distribution gives Salernitana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.14 – 1.22

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Foggia home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Salernitana away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Salernitana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 34% / 28% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.14 goals for Foggia and 1.22 for Salernitana, a combined 2.36 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Foggia win34%

Draw28%

Salernitana win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–113.1%
0–111.5%
1–010.8%
0–09.4%
1–28.0%

Recent form

Foggia

2026-10-04T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Cosenza · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Sorrento · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter U23 · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Savoia · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs SS Monopoli · 0-1 (L)

Salernitana

2026-10-17T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Scafatese · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Casarano · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Bari · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Crotone · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Giugliano · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie C - Girone C table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Potenza	11	8	2	1	13	26
2	Bari	11	6	3	2	7	21
3	Sorrento	11	6	2	3	4	20
4	Audace Cerignola	10	5	2	3	9	17
5	Scafatese	10	4	5	1	3	17
6	Casertana	11	4	5	2	2	17
7	Catania	10	5	1	4	6	16
8	Cavese	10	4	3	3	3	15
9	SS Monopoli	10	4	3	3	2	15
10	Salernitana	10	3	5	2	2	14
11	Inter U23	10	4	2	4	1	14
12	AZ Picerno	10	4	0	6	-1	12
13	Team Altamura	11	3	3	5	-7	12
14	Barletta	11	2	5	4	-3	11
15	Foggia	10	3	2	5	-3	11
16	Savoia	11	2	5	4	-5	11
17	Casarano	10	3	2	5	-6	11
18	Giugliano	10	3	1	6	-8	10
19	Cosenza	11	1	3	7	-14	6
20	Crotone	10	1	4	5	-5	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.