Foggia vs Siracusa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Foggia and 1.03 for Siracusa, a combined total of 2.19. That distribution gives Foggia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.16 – 1.03

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Foggia home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Siracusa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Foggia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 29% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Foggia and 1.03 for Siracusa, a combined 2.19 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Foggia win39%

Draw29%

Siracusa win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals64%

Over 2.5 goals37%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–113.4%
1–013.0%
0–111.6%
0–011.3%
2–17.7%

Recent form

Foggia

2026-10-04T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Cosenza · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Sorrento · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter U23 · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Savoia · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs SS Monopoli · 0-1 (L)

Siracusa

2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Trapani 1905 · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Licata · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vigor Lamezia · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Milazzo · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Modica · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie C - Girone C table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Potenza	11	8	2	1	13	26
2	Bari	11	6	3	2	7	21
3	Sorrento	11	6	2	3	4	20
4	Catania	11	6	1	4	12	19
5	SS Monopoli	11	5	3	3	4	18
6	Audace Cerignola	11	5	2	4	7	17
7	Scafatese	10	4	5	1	3	17
8	Casertana	11	4	5	2	2	17
9	Cavese	11	4	3	4	2	15
10	Salernitana	10	3	5	2	2	14
11	Inter U23	10	4	2	4	1	14
12	Foggia	11	4	2	5	-2	14
13	AZ Picerno	10	4	0	6	-1	12
14	Team Altamura	11	3	3	5	-7	12
15	Barletta	11	2	5	4	-3	11
16	Savoia	11	2	5	4	-5	11
17	Casarano	10	3	2	5	-6	11
18	Giugliano	11	3	1	7	-14	10
19	Cosenza	11	1	3	7	-14	6
20	Crotone	10	1	4	5	-5	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.