Folgore Caratese vs Arzignano Valchiampo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Folgore Caratese and 1.43 for Arzignano Valchiampo, a combined total of 2.49. That distribution gives Arzignano Valchiampo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Arzignano Valchiampo win

45.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.06 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Folgore Caratese home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Arzignano Valchiampo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arzignano Valchiampo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 28% / 27% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for Folgore Caratese and 1.43 for Arzignano Valchiampo, a combined 2.49 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Folgore Caratese win28%

Draw27%

Arzignano Valchiampo win46%

Double chance 1X

54%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

72%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.6%
0–111.9%
1–29.0%
1–08.8%
0–28.5%

Recent form

Folgore Caratese

2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Desenzano Calvina · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Lumezzane · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Giana Erminio · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Pergolettese · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Alcione · 2-3 (L)

Arzignano Valchiampo

2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Pergolettese · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Carpi · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Renate · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Albinoleffe · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Desenzano Calvina · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie C - Girone A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cittadella	11	9	0	2	12	27
2	Trento	11	6	5	0	11	23
3	Union Brescia	11	6	4	1	10	22
4	Treviso	11	5	4	2	4	19
5	Ospitaletto	10	5	3	2	8	18
6	Arzignano Valchiampo	10	5	2	3	3	17
7	Alcione	11	3	6	2	1	15
8	Albinoleffe	11	3	5	3	1	14
9	Pergolettese	10	3	5	2	0	14
10	Lecco	10	3	4	3	3	13
11	Desenzano Calvina	10	3	4	3	-2	13
12	Lumezzane	10	3	3	4	-3	12
13	Athletic Carpi	11	3	3	5	-5	12
14	Novara	10	2	4	4	-4	10
15	Dolomiti Bellunesi	11	2	4	5	-6	10
16	Juventus U23	11	2	4	5	-7	10
17	PRO Vercelli	10	2	3	5	-10	9
18	Giana Erminio	10	1	5	4	-3	8
19	Folgore Caratese	10	1	3	6	-6	6
20	Renate	11	0	5	6	-7	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Arzignano Valchiampo win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.