Sportitalia Arena · Analysis updated 06:25 UTC
Folgore Caratese vs Oltrepò Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Folgore Caratese and 1.18 for Oltrepò, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Folgore Caratese the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Folgore Caratese win
49.9% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Folgore Caratese home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Oltrepò away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Folgore Caratese to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 24% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Folgore Caratese and 1.18 for Oltrepò, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–08.1%
- 1–26.6%
Recent form
Folgore Caratese
- 2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Desenzano Calvina · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Lumezzane · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Giana Erminio · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Pergolettese · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Alcione · 2-3 (L)
Oltrepò
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pro Sesto · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Coriano · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Castellanzese · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Pavia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pro Patria · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nibbiano & Valtidone | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 24 |
| 2 | Chievo | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 3 | Piacenza | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Caldiero Terme | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Leon | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Villa Valle | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Milan II | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Real Calepina | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Virtus Verona | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Pavonese | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 11 | Pro Palazzolo | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 12 | Scanzorosciate | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Brusaporto | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Club Milano | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 | Rovato Vertovese | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Fiorenzuola | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6 |
| 18 | Tritium | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Folgore Caratese win, at 49.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.