· Analysis updated 12:23 UTC
Folgore Caratese vs Treviso Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Folgore Caratese and 1.42 for Treviso, a combined total of 3.29. That distribution gives Folgore Caratese the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Folgore Caratese win
47.9% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Folgore Caratese home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Treviso away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Folgore Caratese to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 23% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Folgore Caratese and 1.42 for Treviso, a combined 3.29 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–27.1%
- 1–07.0%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Folgore Caratese
- 2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Desenzano Calvina · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Lumezzane · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Giana Erminio · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Pergolettese · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Alcione · 2-3 (L)
Treviso
- 2026-10-17T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Folgore Caratese · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Ospitaletto · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Giana Erminio · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Renate · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Desenzano Calvina · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Championship Round table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vado | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 2 | Folgore Caratese | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 3 | Treviso | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 1 | Desenzano Calvina | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Grosseto | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Ostia Mare | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 1 | Scafatese | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 2 | Barletta | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Savoia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Folgore Caratese win, at 47.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.