Stadio Olimpico di Serravalle · Analysis updated 17:24 UTC
Folgore vs San Marino Academy Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Folgore and 1.03 for San Marino Academy, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Folgore the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Folgore win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Folgore home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Marino Academy away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Folgore to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 25% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Folgore and 1.03 for San Marino Academy, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–011.5%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.3%
- 0–17.2%
Recent form
Folgore
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs San Marino Academy · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Juvenes / Dogana · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Libertas · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cailungo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Murata · 5-0 (W)
San Marino Academy
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Folgore · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Faetano · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs La Fiorita · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentino · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cailungo · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campionato table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Folgore | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 15 |
| 2 | Tre Penne | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 15 |
| 3 | Virtus | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 4 | Tre Fiori | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 12 |
| 5 | Cosmos | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 6 | La Fiorita | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 7 | Libertas | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Fiorentino | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | Domagnano | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | Juvenes / Dogana | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Cailungo | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | San Giovanni | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 13 | Murata | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 14 | Pennarossa | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -13 | 3 |
| 15 | San Marino Academy | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 2 |
| 16 | Faetano | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Folgore win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.