· Analysis updated 15:11 UTC
Foligno Calcio vs Lanciano FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.64 expected goals for Foligno Calcio and 1.21 for Lanciano FC, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives Foligno Calcio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Foligno Calcio win
47.4% probability
Expected goals
1.64 – 1.21
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Foligno Calcio home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lanciano FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Foligno Calcio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 24% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.64 goals for Foligno Calcio and 1.21 for Lanciano FC, a combined 2.86 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–07.8%
- 0–17.0%
Recent form
Foligno Calcio
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Notaresco · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Recanatese · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pietralunga · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lanciano FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cannara · 1-0 (W)
Lanciano FC
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Ascoli · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Montecchio Gallo · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Termoli Calcio · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Recanatese · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fossombrone · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone F table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L'Aquila | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 23 |
| 2 | Teramo | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Ancona | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Foligno Calcio | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Vigor Senigallia | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Notaresco | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 7 | Atletico Ascoli | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Real Giulianova | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | Fossombrone | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 10 | Montecchio Gallo | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Lanciano FC | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 12 | Termoli Calcio | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Recanatese | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Santegidiese | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Pietralunga | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Maceratese | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 17 | Sporting Trestina | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 18 | Angelana | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Foligno Calcio win, at 47.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.