· Analysis updated 15:53 UTC
Folkestone Invicta vs Chelmsford City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Folkestone Invicta and 0.75 for Chelmsford City, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Folkestone Invicta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Folkestone Invicta win
61.3% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Folkestone Invicta home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Chelmsford City away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Folkestone Invicta to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 23% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Folkestone Invicta and 0.75 for Chelmsford City, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.4%
- 2–012.6%
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Folkestone Invicta
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Totton · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Weston-super-Mare · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Ebbsfleet United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Salisbury · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dover · 2-4 (L)
Chelmsford City
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brackley Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Horsham · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Canvey Island · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hampton & Richmond · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dorking Wanderers · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League - South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone Utd | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 25 |
| 2 | Ebbsfleet United | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 22 |
| 3 | Salisbury | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 4 | Billericay Town | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 5 | Truro City | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 6 | Tonbridge Angels | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 20 |
| 7 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Weston-super-Mare | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Dover | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 10 | Dorking Wanderers | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 17 |
| 11 | Farnham Town | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 12 | Folkestone Invicta | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 13 | Torquay | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 14 | Horsham | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 15 | Chelmsford City | 10 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 16 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 17 | Farnborough | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 18 | Maidenhead | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 19 | Chesham United | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 10 |
| 20 | Braintree | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -9 | 10 |
| 21 | AFC Totton | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -14 | 10 |
| 22 | Hampton & Richmond | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 8 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 8 |
| 24 | Slough Town | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Folkestone Invicta win, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.