· Analysis updated 14:00 UTC
Fomat Martin vs Novohrad Lučenec Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Fomat Martin and 1.63 for Novohrad Lučenec, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives Fomat Martin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fomat Martin win
49.9% probability
Expected goals
2.15 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fomat Martin home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Novohrad Lučenec away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fomat Martin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 21% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.15 goals for Fomat Martin and 1.63 for Novohrad Lučenec, a combined 3.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 1–18.0%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–26.5%
- 3–16.2%
Recent form
Fomat Martin
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Novohrad Lučenec · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Banská Byst II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Podkonice · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Oravské Veselé · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Čadca · 0-1 (L)
Novohrad Lučenec
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fomat Martin · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Baník Kalinovo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Sokol Medzibrod · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Banská Byst II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Komárno · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - Center table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ružomberok II | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 23 |
| 2 | Námestovo | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 22 |
| 3 | Fiľakovo | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 4 | Fomat Martin | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Čadca | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 16 |
| 6 | Podkonice | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Rimavská Sobota | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 8 | Novohrad Lučenec | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Baník Kalinovo | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Oravské Veselé | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 11 | Banská Byst II | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 12 | Sokol Medzibrod | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 8 |
| 13 | Kysucké Nové Mesto | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 14 | Dolný Kubín | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fomat Martin win, at 49.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.