Thornhill Park · Analysis updated 00:37 UTC
Forest Green Rovers W vs Bridgwater United W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.61 expected goals for Forest Green Rovers W and 1.74 for Bridgwater United W, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Bridgwater United W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.2% probability
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.74
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bridgwater United W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bridgwater United W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 36% / 23% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.61 goals for Forest Green Rovers W and 1.74 for Bridgwater United W, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.9%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–16.1%
Recent form
Forest Green Rovers W
- 2025-10-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dartford W · 1-5 (L)
- 2024-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bridgwater United W · 2-4 (L)
- 2023-10-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bridgwater United W · 0-3 (L)
Bridgwater United W
- 2025-11-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Royston Town W · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-10-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wycombe Wanderers W · 1-1 (D)
- 2024-11-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff City W · 0-4 (L)
- 2024-11-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Torquay United · 1-0 (W)
- 2024-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Forest Green Rovers W · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2024-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · Forest Green Rovers W 2-4 Bridgwater United W (FA Women's Cup)
- 2023-10-22T13:00:00.000Z · Forest Green Rovers W 0-3 Bridgwater United W (FA Women's Cup)
FA Women's Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.