Station Park · Analysis updated 06:04 UTC
Forfar Athletic vs Stirling Albion Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Forfar Athletic and 1.25 for Stirling Albion, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Forfar Athletic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.5% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Forfar Athletic home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stirling Albion away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–010.3%
- 0–08.2%
- 1–28.0%
Recent form
Forfar Athletic
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Formartine United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dundee United II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Peterhead · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Annan Athletic · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartans · 1-5 (L)
Stirling Albion
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fraserburgh · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cumbernauld Colts · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Clyde · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Edinburgh City · 3-7 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Rangers U21 · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · Forfar Athletic 3-0 Stirling Albion (League Two)
- 2026-03-14T15:00:00.000Z · Forfar Athletic 3-0 Stirling Albion (League Two)
- 2026-01-24T15:00:00.000Z · Forfar Athletic 0-1 Stirling Albion (League Two)
- 2025-11-15T15:00:00.000Z · Forfar Athletic 4-0 Stirling Albion (League Two)
- 2025-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · Forfar Athletic 4-2 Stirling Albion (League Two)
- 2025-05-03T14:00:00.000Z · Forfar Athletic 0-0 Stirling Albion (League Two)
- 2025-02-15T15:00:00.000Z · Forfar Athletic 1-3 Stirling Albion (League Two)
- 2024-12-28T15:00:00.000Z · Forfar Athletic 2-2 Stirling Albion (League Two)
- 2024-11-30T15:00:00.000Z · Forfar Athletic 3-3 Stirling Albion (FA Cup)
- 2024-10-05T14:00:00.000Z · Forfar Athletic 1-2 Stirling Albion (League Two)
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stranraer | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 23 |
| 2 | Clyde | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | Elgin City | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 4 | Spartans | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Kelty Hearts | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 15 |
| 6 | Dumbarton | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 13 |
| 7 | Stirling Albion | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 12 |
| 8 | Edinburgh City | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Forfar Athletic | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 10 | Annan Athletic | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -10 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.