Tim Hortons Field · Analysis updated 13:49 UTC
Forge vs HFX Wanderers FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Forge and 1.15 for HFX Wanderers FC, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Forge the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Forge win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Forge home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
HFX Wanderers FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Forge to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 25% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Forge and 1.15 for HFX Wanderers FC, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.1%
- 0–17.7%
Recent form
Forge
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs HFX Wanderers FC · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Vancouver FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T21:10:00.000Z · A vs Cavalry FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Supra du Quebec · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Ottawa · 3-0 (W)
HFX Wanderers FC
- 2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Ottawa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T19:10:00.000Z · H vs York United · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Supra du Quebec · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cavalry FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Pacific FC · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Canadian Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 25 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 32 | 53 |
| 2 | Forge | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 21 | 51 |
| 3 | Atlético Ottawa | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | -3 | 40 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 33 |
| 5 | Supra du Quebec | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 6 | HFX Wanderers FC | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | -4 | 27 |
| 7 | York United | 25 | 6 | 9 | 10 | -16 | 27 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 25 | 2 | 8 | 15 | -25 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Forge win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.