Tim Hortons Field · Referee I. Jecanski · Analysis updated 17:00 UTC
Forge vs Pacific FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Forge and 1.23 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Forge the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Forge win
58.5% probability
Expected goals
2.15 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Forge home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pacific FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Forge to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 20% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.15 goals for Forge and 1.23 for Pacific FC, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.0%
- 2–07.9%
- 1–07.4%
- 3–16.9%
Recent form
Forge
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs HFX Wanderers FC · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Vancouver FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T21:10:00.000Z · A vs Cavalry FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Supra du Quebec · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Ottawa · 3-0 (W)
Pacific FC
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs York United · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-20T00:10:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cavalry FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T23:30:00.000Z · A vs York United · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-05T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Ottawa · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Canadian Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 32 | 54 |
| 2 | Forge | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 54 |
| 3 | Atlético Ottawa | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | -1 | 43 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 34 |
| 5 | Supra du Quebec | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 32 |
| 6 | HFX Wanderers FC | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -4 | 28 |
| 7 | York United | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | -21 | 27 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 26 | 2 | 8 | 16 | -27 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Forge win, at 58.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.