Tim Hortons Field · Referee R. Villanueva · Analysis updated 15:37 UTC
Forge vs Vancouver FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for Forge and 0.76 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Forge the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Forge win
60.1% probability
Expected goals
1.71 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Forge home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vancouver FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.4%
- 2–012.3%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
Forge
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs HFX Wanderers FC · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Vancouver FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T21:10:00.000Z · A vs Cavalry FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Supra du Quebec · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Ottawa · 3-0 (W)
Vancouver FC
- 2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Forge · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-24T02:00:00.000Z · H vs York United · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T00:10:00.000Z · A vs Pacific FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs York United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Supra du Quebec · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-07T23:00:00.000Z · Forge 0-1 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2026-07-01T17:00:00.000Z · Forge 3-2 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2026-04-12T23:00:00.000Z · Forge 1-0 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-10-04T20:30:00.000Z · Forge 1-1 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-08-23T02:00:00.000Z · Forge 1-0 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-07-05T21:00:00.000Z · Forge 2-1 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-06-15T20:00:00.000Z · Forge 2-0 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2024-09-21T22:00:00.000Z · Forge 3-1 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2024-08-18T23:00:00.000Z · Forge 2-1 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2024-07-05T23:00:00.000Z · Forge 3-3 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
Canadian Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 32 | 54 |
| 2 | Forge | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 54 |
| 3 | Atlético Ottawa | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | -1 | 43 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 34 |
| 5 | Supra du Quebec | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 32 |
| 6 | HFX Wanderers FC | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -4 | 28 |
| 7 | York United | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | -21 | 27 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 26 | 2 | 8 | 16 | -27 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Forge win, at 60.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.