· Analysis updated 14:41 UTC
Forli vs Cesena Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Forli and 1.26 for Cesena, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Forli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.9% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Forli home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Cesena away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Forli to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 25% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Forli and 1.26 for Cesena, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.1%
- 1–27.6%
Recent form
Forli
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Vado · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Ostia Mare · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Torres · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Pineto · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Vis Pesaro · 2-1 (W)
Cesena
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Juve Stabia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Cremonese · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mantova · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Virtus Entella · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sampdoria · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T18:30:00.000Z · Forli 0-0 Cesena (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-07-30T18:30:00.000Z · Forli 1-4 Cesena (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-08-10T18:30:00.000Z · Forli 0-6 Cesena (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-08-18T00:00:00.000Z · Forli 2-2 Cesena (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.