Estadio Municipal · Analysis updated 21:47 UTC
Formentera vs Mercadal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.94 expected goals for Formentera and 1.01 for Mercadal, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Formentera the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Formentera win
59.0% probability
Expected goals
1.94 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mercadal away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Formentera to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 22% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.94 goals for Formentera and 1.01 for Mercadal, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.8%
- 3–16.4%
Recent form
Formentera
Mercadal
- 2026-10-24T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Porreres · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Cardassar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcúdia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Constància · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Santanyí · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Platges Calvià | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 2 | Constància | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Manacor | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | Cardassar | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Santanyí | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | Porreres | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 8 | PE Sant Jordi | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 9 | Alcúdia | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Formentera | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Llosetense | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Mercadal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Binissalem | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | Andratx | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Migjorn | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 16 | Arenal | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Sineu | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 2 |
| 18 | Inter Ibiza | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Formentera win, at 59.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.