· Analysis updated 16:51 UTC
Formentera vs PE Sant Jordi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Formentera and 2.00 for PE Sant Jordi, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives PE Sant Jordi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.5% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
PE Sant Jordi away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates PE Sant Jordi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 38% / 21% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Formentera and 2.00 for PE Sant Jordi, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 75% and both teams to score at 74%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–17.7%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–35.1%
Recent form
Formentera
PE Sant Jordi
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Ibiza · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Formentera · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Andratx · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sineu · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Migjorn · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Platges Calvià | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 2 | Constància | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Manacor | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | Cardassar | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 6 | Santanyí | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | Porreres | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 8 | PE Sant Jordi | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 9 | Alcúdia | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Formentera | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Llosetense | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Mercadal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Binissalem | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | Andratx | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Migjorn | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 16 | Arenal | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Inter Ibiza | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
| 18 | Sineu | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.