Estadio Castelão · Referee Pierry Dias dos Santos, Brazil · Analysis updated 03:28 UTC
Fortaleza EC vs Athletic Club Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.68 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Fortaleza EC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fortaleza EC win
53.5% probability
Expected goals
1.37 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fortaleza EC home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Athletic Club away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fortaleza EC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 28% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.37 goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.68 for Athletic Club, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.6%
- 0–012.9%
- 2–012.1%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–18.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.67 (model 63.2% vs market 55.7%, edge +7.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.67 | 55.7% | 63.2% | 1.58 | +7.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.10 | 44.9% | 46.5% | 2.15 | +1.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.8% | 28.0% | 3.57 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 18.3% | 18.5% | 5.41 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.70 | 53.9% | 53.5% | 1.87 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.5% | 72.0% | 1.39 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.14 | 82.7% | 81.5% | 1.23 | -1.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.10 | 44.3% | 36.8% | 2.72 | -7.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Fortaleza EC
- 2026-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · A vs America Mineiro · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T00:35:00.000Z · H vs Nautico Recife · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Londrina · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Ceara · 1-1 (D)
Athletic Club
- 2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Avai · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-13T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Londrina · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-06T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Goias · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-01T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Sport Recife · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Fortaleza EC · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 35 | 18 | 10 | 7 | 32 | 64 |
| 2 | Vila Nova | 35 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 62 |
| 3 | Juventude | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 61 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 35 | 16 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 61 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 35 | 17 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 59 |
| 6 | CRB | 35 | 16 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 55 |
| 7 | Sport Recife | 35 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 54 |
| 8 | Atletico Goianiense | 35 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 54 |
| 9 | Operario-PR | 35 | 14 | 9 | 12 | -1 | 51 |
| 10 | Goias | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 49 |
| 11 | São Bernardo | 35 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 49 |
| 12 | Botafogo SP | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 2 | 47 |
| 13 | Cuiaba | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 47 |
| 14 | Athletic Club | 35 | 10 | 14 | 11 | 0 | 44 |
| 15 | Nautico Recife | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 43 |
| 16 | Ceara | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | -5 | 43 |
| 17 | Avai | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | -12 | 37 |
| 18 | Londrina | 35 | 8 | 8 | 19 | -7 | 32 |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 34 | 5 | 5 | 24 | -32 | 20 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 35 | 3 | 6 | 26 | -55 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fortaleza EC win, at 53.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.