Brazil · Serie B · Matchweek 2722:30

1 – 0

Wednesday, 9 September 2026

Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo · Referee Yuri Elino Ferreira Da Cruz, Brazil · Analysis updated 16:42 UTC

Fortaleza EC vs Avai Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.93 for Avai, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Fortaleza EC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Fortaleza EC win

47.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.38 – 0.93

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Fortaleza EC home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Avai away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Fortaleza EC win47%

Draw28%

Avai win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–013.8%
1–112.8%
0–010.0%
2–09.5%
0–19.3%

Recent form

Fortaleza EC

2026-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · A vs America Mineiro · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T00:35:00.000Z · H vs Nautico Recife · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Londrina · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Ceara · 1-1 (D)

Avai

2026-10-24T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo SP · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-11T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Cuiaba · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Londrina · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ceara · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-09T22:30:00.000Z · Fortaleza EC 1-0 Avai (Serie B)
2026-05-10T21:30:00.000Z · Fortaleza EC 0-0 Avai (Serie B)
2022-10-09T19:00:00.000Z · Fortaleza EC 2-0 Avai (Serie A)
2022-06-16T22:00:00.000Z · Fortaleza EC 2-3 Avai (Serie A)
2019-10-30T22:30:00.000Z · Fortaleza EC 3-1 Avai (Serie A)
2019-07-13T20:00:00.000Z · Fortaleza EC 2-0 Avai (Serie A)
2018-11-10T19:30:00.000Z · Fortaleza EC 1-0 Avai (Serie B)
2018-07-25T00:30:00.000Z · Fortaleza EC 1-1 Avai (Serie B)

Serie B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Novorizontino	35	18	10	7	32	64
2	Vila Nova	35	18	8	9	14	62
3	Juventude	34	17	10	7	18	61
4	Fortaleza EC	35	16	13	6	12	61
5	Criciuma	35	17	8	10	6	59
6	CRB	35	16	7	12	4	55
7	Sport Recife	35	14	12	9	9	54
8	Atletico Goianiense	35	14	12	9	9	54
9	Operario-PR	35	14	9	12	-1	51
10	Goias	34	14	7	13	-6	49
11	São Bernardo	35	13	10	12	10	49
12	Botafogo SP	35	13	8	14	2	47
13	Cuiaba	34	11	14	9	5	47
14	Athletic Club	35	10	14	11	0	44
15	Nautico Recife	34	11	10	13	-3	43
16	Ceara	34	11	10	13	-5	43
17	Avai	35	10	7	18	-12	37
18	Londrina	35	8	8	19	-7	32
19	America Mineiro	34	5	5	24	-32	20
20	Ponte Preta	35	3	6	26	-55	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Fortaleza EC win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.