Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.83 for Nautico Recife, a combined total of 2.27. That distribution gives Fortaleza EC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Fortaleza EC win

51.2% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.44 – 0.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Fortaleza EC home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nautico Recife away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fortaleza EC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 27% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.83 for Nautico Recife, a combined 2.27 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Fortaleza EC win51%

Draw27%

Nautico Recife win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

1–014.8%
1–112.4%
2–010.7%
0–010.3%
2–18.9%

Recent form

Fortaleza EC

2026-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · A vs America Mineiro · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T00:35:00.000Z · H vs Nautico Recife · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Londrina · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Ceara · 1-1 (D)

Nautico Recife

2026-10-19T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Goias · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Vila Nova · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-08T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Novorizontino · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-03T00:35:00.000Z · A vs Fortaleza EC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Sport Recife · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Novorizontino	35	18	10	7	32	64
2	Vila Nova	35	18	8	9	14	62
3	Juventude	34	17	10	7	18	61
4	Fortaleza EC	35	16	13	6	12	61
5	Criciuma	35	17	8	10	6	59
6	CRB	35	16	7	12	4	55
7	Sport Recife	35	14	12	9	9	54
8	Atletico Goianiense	35	14	12	9	9	54
9	Operario-PR	35	14	9	12	-1	51
10	Goias	34	14	7	13	-6	49
11	São Bernardo	35	13	10	12	10	49
12	Botafogo SP	35	13	8	14	2	47
13	Cuiaba	34	11	14	9	5	47
14	Athletic Club	35	10	14	11	0	44
15	Nautico Recife	34	11	10	13	-3	43
16	Ceara	34	11	10	13	-5	43
17	Avai	35	10	7	18	-12	37
18	Londrina	35	8	8	19	-7	32
19	America Mineiro	34	5	5	24	-32	20
20	Ponte Preta	35	3	6	26	-55	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Fortaleza EC win, at 51.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.