Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.97 for Vila Nova, a combined total of 2.12. That distribution gives Fortaleza EC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.15 – 0.97

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Fortaleza EC home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vila Nova away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fortaleza EC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 30% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.97 for Vila Nova, a combined 2.12 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Fortaleza EC win40%

Draw30%

Vila Nova win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–013.8%
1–113.4%
0–012.0%
0–111.7%
2–07.9%

Recent form

Fortaleza EC

2026-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · A vs America Mineiro · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T00:35:00.000Z · H vs Nautico Recife · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Londrina · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Ceara · 1-1 (D)

Vila Nova

2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Nautico Recife · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Cuiaba · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-03T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo SP · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-25T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Londrina · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T22:30:00.000Z · H vs America Mineiro · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vila Nova	34	18	8	8	15	62
2	Novorizontino	34	17	10	7	31	61
3	Juventude	34	17	10	7	18	61
4	Fortaleza EC	34	16	12	6	12	60
5	Criciuma	34	17	8	9	7	59
6	Atletico Goianiense	34	14	12	8	10	54
7	CRB	34	15	7	12	3	52
8	Sport Recife	34	13	12	9	8	51
9	Goias	33	14	6	13	-6	48
10	Operario-PR	34	13	9	12	-2	48
11	Cuiaba	33	11	14	8	6	47
12	São Bernardo	34	12	10	12	9	46
13	Botafogo SP	34	12	8	14	0	44
14	Athletic Club	34	10	14	10	1	44
15	Ceara	34	11	10	13	-5	43
16	Nautico Recife	33	11	9	13	-3	42
17	Avai	34	10	7	17	-10	37
18	Londrina	33	7	8	18	-7	29
19	America Mineiro	34	5	5	24	-32	20
20	Ponte Preta	34	3	5	26	-55	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.