Estádio Municipal Presidente Getúlio Vargas · Analysis updated 18:11 UTC
Fortaleza U20 vs Alianca U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.24 expected goals for Fortaleza U20 and 0.73 for Alianca U20, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Fortaleza U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fortaleza U20 win
71.7% probability
Expected goals
2.24 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fortaleza U20 home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alianca U20 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fortaleza U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 18% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.24 goals for Fortaleza U20 and 0.73 for Alianca U20, a combined 2.98 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.8%
- 1–011.4%
- 3–09.6%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–18.4%
Recent form
Fortaleza U20
- 2026-10-01T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Ceará U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Piauí U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Ceará U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Quixadá U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-12T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Quixadá U20 · 0-1 (L)
Alianca U20
- 2026-07-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vila Real FC U20 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Anjos do Céu U20 · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-07-03T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Tirol U20 · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-06-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Tiangua CE U20 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-06-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Caucaia U20 · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cearense U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Real FC U20 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | Ceará U20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Tirol U20 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 6 |
| 4 | Caucaia U20 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 5 | Horizonte U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 6 | Anjos do Céu U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 7 | Tiangua CE U20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Quixadá U20 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Ferroviario U20 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 9 |
| 3 | Atlético Cearense U20 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | Fortaleza U20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 |
| 5 | Floresta CE U20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Alianca U20 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 7 | Juazeiro EC U20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -15 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fortaleza U20 win, at 71.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.