Fortaleza W vs Atlético Bucaramanga W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Fortaleza W and 1.15 for Atlético Bucaramanga W, a combined total of 2.77. That distribution gives Fortaleza W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Fortaleza W win

48.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.62 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Fortaleza W home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atlético Bucaramanga W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fortaleza W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 25% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Fortaleza W and 1.15 for Atlético Bucaramanga W, a combined 2.77 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Fortaleza W win48%

Draw25%

Atlético Bucaramanga W win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–111.7%
1–010.1%
2–19.5%
2–08.2%
0–17.2%

Recent form

Fortaleza W

2026-08-20T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Fe W · 4-4 (D)
2026-07-31T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Independiente Medellín W · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs La Equidad W · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-29T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Bucaramanga W · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-24T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Junior W · 0-0 (D)

Atlético Bucaramanga W

2026-08-20T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Once Caldas W · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-03T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Junior W · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-25T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Llaneros W · 3-0 (W)
2026-05-29T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortaleza W · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-20T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Cali W · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga Femenina table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Deportivo Cali W	26	19	4	3	35	61
2	Millonarios W	24	13	9	2	27	48
3	Atlético Nacional W	24	16	0	8	22	48
4	América de Cali W	22	14	3	5	24	45
5	Santa Fe W	26	11	8	7	12	41
6	La Equidad W	22	10	4	8	7	34
7	Internacional Palmira W	22	9	6	7	-7	33
8	Orsomarso W	22	5	8	9	-5	23
9	Independiente Medellín W	16	6	1	9	-1	19
10	Fortaleza W	16	4	5	7	-9	17
11	Atlético Bucaramanga W	16	5	2	9	-19	17
12	Llaneros W	16	3	4	9	-22	13
13	Junior W	16	2	6	8	-12	12
14	Real Santander W	16	1	7	8	-18	10
15	Once Caldas W	16	1	5	10	-18	8
16	Deportivo Pasto W	16	1	4	11	-16	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Fortaleza W win, at 48.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.