Estadio Metropolitano de Techo · Analysis updated 07:42 UTC
Fortaleza W vs Millonarios W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for Fortaleza W and 1.80 for Millonarios W, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Millonarios W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Millonarios W win
63.8% probability
Expected goals
0.70 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fortaleza W home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Millonarios W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Millonarios W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 14% / 22% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.70 goals for Fortaleza W and 1.80 for Millonarios W, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.8%
- 0–213.3%
- 1–110.3%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Fortaleza W
- 2026-08-20T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Fe W · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-07-31T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Independiente Medellín W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs La Equidad W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-29T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Bucaramanga W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-24T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Junior W · 0-0 (D)
Millonarios W
- 2026-08-24T23:00:00.000Z · H vs La Equidad W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-09T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Cali W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-04T22:20:00.000Z · H vs Santa Fe W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Junior W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-04T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Independiente Medellín W · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Femenina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Cali W | 26 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 35 | 61 |
| 2 | Millonarios W | 24 | 13 | 9 | 2 | 27 | 48 |
| 3 | Atlético Nacional W | 24 | 16 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 48 |
| 4 | América de Cali W | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 45 |
| 5 | Santa Fe W | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 41 |
| 6 | La Equidad W | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 34 |
| 7 | Internacional Palmira W | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | -7 | 33 |
| 8 | Orsomarso W | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -5 | 23 |
| 9 | Independiente Medellín W | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 | Fortaleza W | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | -9 | 17 |
| 11 | Atlético Bucaramanga W | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | -19 | 17 |
| 12 | Llaneros W | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -22 | 13 |
| 13 | Junior W | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -12 | 12 |
| 14 | Real Santander W | 16 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -18 | 10 |
| 15 | Once Caldas W | 16 | 1 | 5 | 10 | -18 | 8 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pasto W | 16 | 1 | 4 | 11 | -16 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Millonarios W win, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.