Vargem Alta · Analysis updated 09:02 UTC
Forte FC vs Capixaba SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for Forte FC and 0.46 for Capixaba SC, a combined total of 1.50. That distribution gives Forte FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 19% for over 2.5 goals and 24% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 23%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Forte FC win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
1.04 – 0.46
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Forte FC home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Forte FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 34% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.04 goals for Forte FC and 0.46 for Capixaba SC, a combined 1.50 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 19% and both teams to score at 24%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 23%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–023.1%
- 0–022.3%
- 2–012.0%
- 1–110.7%
- 0–110.4%
Recent form
Forte FC
- 2026-03-01T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória ES · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-02-23T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitória ES · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-02-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Desportiva ES · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-02-07T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Rio Branco ES · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-02-05T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitória ES · 0-0 (D)
Capixaba SC
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Capixaba table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitória ES | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Serra Talhada | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 3 | Vilavelhense | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 4 | Rio Branco ES | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Porto Vitória | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Desportiva ES | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Real Noroeste | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 8 | Forte FC | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Capixaba SC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 10 | Rio Branco-VN | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Forte FC win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 24% and over 2.5 goals at 19%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.