Muktijuddho Sriti Stadium · Analysis updated 12:54 UTC
Fortis vs Brothers Union Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Fortis and 1.00 for Brothers Union, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Fortis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fortis win
50.1% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fortis home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Brothers Union away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.1%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–09.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
Fortis
- 2026-10-17T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Qadsia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T08:45:00.000Z · A vs Brothers Union · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs City Club · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-22T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Fakirerpool · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Chattogram · 6-0 (W)
Brothers Union
- 2026-05-23T09:45:00.000Z · A vs Mohammedan Dhaka · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-05-15T09:45:00.000Z · A vs Fortis · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-12T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Mohammedan Dhaka · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-09T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Rahmatgonj MFS · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-05T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Bashundhara Kings · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-15T09:45:00.000Z · Fortis 2-0 Brothers Union (Premier League)
- 2025-12-27T08:30:00.000Z · Fortis 1-1 Brothers Union (Premier League)
- 2025-04-12T09:30:00.000Z · Fortis 2-0 Brothers Union (Premier League)
- 2025-01-14T08:45:00.000Z · Fortis 0-1 Brothers Union (Federation Cup)
- 2024-12-07T08:30:00.000Z · Fortis 1-1 Brothers Union (Premier League)
- 2024-05-11T10:00:00.000Z · Fortis 1-1 Brothers Union (Premier League)
- 2024-02-03T09:00:00.000Z · Fortis 2-2 Brothers Union (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bashundhara Kings | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 24 | 41 |
| 2 | Abahani | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 37 |
| 3 | Fortis | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 35 |
| 4 | Bangladesh Police | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 27 |
| 5 | Mohammedan Dhaka | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Rahmatgonj MFS | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | -4 | 23 |
| 7 | Brothers Union | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -11 | 17 |
| 8 | PWD Sports Club | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -13 | 17 |
| 9 | Arambagh | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -16 | 14 |
| 10 | Fakirerpool | 18 | 2 | 4 | 12 | -31 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fortis win, at 50.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.