Muktijuddho Sriti Stadium · Analysis updated 03:08 UTC
Fortis vs Fakirerpool Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Fortis and 0.95 for Fakirerpool, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Fortis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fortis win
67.2% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fortis home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fakirerpool away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fortis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 19% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for Fortis and 0.95 for Fakirerpool, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–18.6%
- 3–07.8%
Recent form
Fortis
- 2026-10-17T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Qadsia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T08:45:00.000Z · A vs Brothers Union · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs City Club · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-22T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Fakirerpool · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Chattogram · 6-0 (W)
Fakirerpool
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Mohammedan Dhaka · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-22T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortis · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Dhaka Wanderers · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-23T09:45:00.000Z · A vs Bashundhara Kings · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-05-15T09:45:00.000Z · H vs PWD Sports Club · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Federation Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fakirerpool | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2 | Fortis | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fortis win, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.