Color Line Stadion · Referee H. Nervik · Analysis updated 19:57 UTC
Fortuna Ålesund W vs Hønefoss W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Fortuna Ålesund W and 0.97 for Hønefoss W, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Fortuna Ålesund W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fortuna Ålesund W win
64.2% probability
Expected goals
2.15 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fortuna Ålesund W home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hønefoss W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.4%
- 1–19.2%
- 3–07.3%
Recent form
Fortuna Ålesund W
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Molde W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bodø / Glimt W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hønefoss W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Haugesund W · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyn W · 2-1 (W)
Hønefoss W
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Bodø / Glimt W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyn W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Røa W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Molde W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Ålesund W · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z · Fortuna Ålesund W 2-0 Hønefoss W (Toppserien)
- 2024-11-02T14:00:00.000Z · Fortuna Ålesund W 2-2 Hønefoss W (1. Division Women)
- 2024-10-13T11:00:00.000Z · Fortuna Ålesund W 1-1 Hønefoss W (1. Division Women)
- 2024-06-16T13:00:00.000Z · Fortuna Ålesund W 2-2 Hønefoss W (1. Division Women)
- 2024-05-12T11:00:00.000Z · Fortuna Ålesund W 1-1 Hønefoss W (1. Division Women)
- 2023-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · Fortuna Ålesund W 3-1 Hønefoss W (1. Division Women)
- 2023-04-22T12:00:00.000Z · Fortuna Ålesund W 4-1 Hønefoss W (1. Division Women)
- 2022-10-16T14:00:00.000Z · Fortuna Ålesund W 0-1 Hønefoss W (1. Division Women)
- 2022-08-14T14:00:00.000Z · Fortuna Ålesund W 1-3 Hønefoss W (1. Division Women)
- 2022-04-02T00:00:00.000Z · Fortuna Ålesund W 4-0 Hønefoss W (1. Division Women)
Toppserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brann W | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 49 | 51 |
| 2 | Fortuna Ålesund W | 20 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 50 |
| 3 | Rosenborg W | 20 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 15 | 42 |
| 4 | Vålerenga W | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 38 |
| 5 | Lyn W | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 32 |
| 6 | Stabæk W | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 27 |
| 7 | Haugesund W | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | -16 | 24 |
| 8 | Hønefoss W | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | -15 | 19 |
| 9 | Molde W | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | -16 | 18 |
| 10 | Røa W | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -19 | 17 |
| 11 | LSK Kvinner W | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | -17 | 15 |
| 12 | Bodø / Glimt W | 20 | 1 | 3 | 16 | -61 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fortuna Ålesund W win, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.