· Analysis updated 14:54 UTC
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 vs Borussia Dortmund U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 and 1.93 for Borussia Dortmund U19, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Borussia Dortmund U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Borussia Dortmund U19 win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Borussia Dortmund U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 25% / 22% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 and 1.93 for Borussia Dortmund U19, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 62%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 53% with low confidence, from a data-quality score of 70/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–17.8%
- 0–27.6%
- 2–16.4%
Recent form
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
Borussia Dortmund U19
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Borussia Dortmund U19 win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.