Kunstrasenplatz Jean-Löring-Sportpark · Analysis updated 12:29 UTC
Fortuna Köln II vs Eintracht Hohkeppel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.41 expected goals for Fortuna Köln II and 2.15 for Eintracht Hohkeppel, a combined total of 4.56. That distribution gives Fortuna Köln II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fortuna Köln II win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
2.41 – 2.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Eintracht Hohkeppel away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fortuna Köln II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 19% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.41 goals for Fortuna Köln II and 2.15 for Eintracht Hohkeppel, a combined 4.56 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 83% and both teams to score at 80%, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.0%
- 2–16.5%
- 1–25.8%
- 3–25.6%
- 1–15.4%
Recent form
Fortuna Köln II
Eintracht Hohkeppel
- 2026-10-25T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Frechen · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Neunkirchen-Seelscheid · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Chlodwig Zulpich · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SSV Merten · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Porz · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Mittelrhein table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wegberg-Beeck | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 22 |
| 2 | SSV Merten | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 19 |
| 3 | Eintracht Hohkeppel | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Frechen | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Düren Merzenich | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | Lindenthal-Hohenlind | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | Fortuna Köln II | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | VfL Vichttal | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 12 |
| 9 | Bornheim | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Siegburger SV | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 11 | Hürth | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 12 | Chlodwig Zulpich | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 13 | Hennef 05 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 14 | TuS BW Königsdorf | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -23 | 6 |
| 15 | Porz | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 5 |
| 16 | Neunkirchen-Seelscheid | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fortuna Köln II win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 80% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.