· Analysis updated 18:10 UTC
Fortuna Köln U19 vs Mainz 05 U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Fortuna Köln U19 and 2.50 for Mainz 05 U19, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Mainz 05 U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mainz 05 U19 win
66.2% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fortuna Köln U19 home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mainz 05 U19 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mainz 05 U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 16% / 18% / 66% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Fortuna Köln U19 and 2.50 for Mainz 05 U19, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.3%
- 0–27.9%
- 1–37.8%
- 1–17.4%
- 0–36.6%
Recent form
Fortuna Köln U19
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Frankfurt U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Wehen Wiesbaden U19 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Mainz 05 U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaiserslautern U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Köln U19 · 1-5 (L)
Mainz 05 U19
- 2026-08-23T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Wehen Wiesbaden U19 · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaiserslautern U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Köln U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Augsburg U19 · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hoffenheim U19 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mainz 05 U19 win, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.