· Referee C. Kabalakli · Analysis updated 14:45 UTC
Fortuna Köln vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Fortuna Köln and 0.91 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Fortuna Köln the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.2% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fortuna Köln home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fortuna Düsseldorf away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fortuna Köln to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 31% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Fortuna Köln and 0.91 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.8%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–112.9%
- 2–07.8%
Recent form
Fortuna Köln
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Havelse · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Wehen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Hoffenheim II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Düsseldorf · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Verl · 2-1 (W)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
- 2026-10-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Verl · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Alemannia Aachen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs SSV Jahn Regensburg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs MSV Duisburg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Köln · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 24 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 18 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 4 | Hansa Rostock | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 5 | FC Saarbrücken | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Waldhof Mannheim | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | Hoffenheim II | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Preußen Münster | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Alemannia Aachen | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 11 | Stuttgart II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Verl | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 13 | Fortuna Köln | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | SV Meppen | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 15 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
| 16 | Würzburger Kickers | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 17 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 18 | SV Wehen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 19 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 20 | Havelse | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.