Bezirkssportanlage Chorweiler · Analysis updated 06:46 UTC
Fortuna Köln W vs Chemnitzer FC W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.59 expected goals for Fortuna Köln W and 1.12 for Chemnitzer FC W, a combined total of 3.71. That distribution gives Fortuna Köln W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fortuna Köln W win
68.9% probability
Expected goals
2.59 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fortuna Köln W home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fortuna Köln W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 17% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.59 goals for Fortuna Köln W and 1.12 for Chemnitzer FC W, a combined 3.71 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 72% and both teams to score at 62%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.2%
- 3–17.9%
- 1–17.1%
- 3–07.1%
Recent form
Fortuna Köln W
- 2025-08-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Elversberg W · 1-1 (D)
- 2024-11-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen W · 0-3 (L)
- 2024-09-08T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Weinberg W · 3-1 (W)
- 2024-08-17T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Issel W · 3-1 (W)
- 2023-08-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bochum W · 2-3 (L)
Chemnitzer FC W
- 2026-08-16T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Blau-Gelb Marburg W · 0-6 (L)
- 2023-08-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hegauer FV W · 2-6 (L)
- 2022-08-21T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Köln W · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fortuna Köln W win, at 68.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.