Fortuna Regensburg vs 1880 Wasserburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.04 expected goals for Fortuna Regensburg and 1.49 for 1880 Wasserburg, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Fortuna Regensburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Fortuna Regensburg win

50.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

2.04 – 1.49

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Fortuna Regensburg home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
1880 Wasserburg away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fortuna Regensburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 21% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.04 goals for Fortuna Regensburg and 1.49 for 1880 Wasserburg, a combined 3.53 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Fortuna Regensburg win51%

Draw21%

1880 Wasserburg win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

2–19.1%
1–18.9%
2–26.8%
1–26.6%
3–16.2%

Recent form

Fortuna Regensburg

2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Nordlingen · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Würzburger FV · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Jahn Regensburg II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gebenbach · 1-1 (D)

1880 Wasserburg

2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs 1860 München II · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-21T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Kottern · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs 1860 Rosenheim · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Ismaning · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Erlbach · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Relegation Round table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FSV Pfaffenhofen/Ilm	2	2	0	0	4	6
2	TSV 1880 Wasserburg	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Großbardorf	2	2	0	0	3	6
4	Kottern	2	1	1	0	3	4
5	Eintracht Münchberg	2	0	2	0	0	2
6	Stadeln	2	0	2	0	0	2
7	Seebach	2	0	1	1	-3	1
8	ATSV Erlangen	2	0	0	2	-3	0
9	Coburg	2	0	0	2	-4	0
10	Sturm Hauzenberg	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Fortuna Regensburg win, at 50.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.