Fortuna Sittard vs ADO Den Haag Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.73 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Fortuna Sittard the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.85 – 1.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Fortuna Sittard home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
ADO Den Haag away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Fortuna Sittard win42%

Draw22%

ADO Den Haag win37%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

1–18.9%
2–18.3%
1–27.7%
2–27.1%
1–05.2%

Recent form

Fortuna Sittard

2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Twente · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Genk · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Willem II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ajax · 1-5 (L)

ADO Den Haag

2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · H vs PSV Eindhoven · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Telstar · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Sittard · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 3-2 ADO Den Haag (Eredivisie)
2021-04-25T12:30:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 3-0 ADO Den Haag (Eredivisie)
2021-02-20T20:00:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 2-0 ADO Den Haag (Eredivisie)
2019-11-09T18:45:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 1-0 ADO Den Haag (Eredivisie)
2019-10-31T19:45:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 3-0 ADO Den Haag (KNVB Beker)
2019-04-03T17:45:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 0-0 ADO Den Haag (Eredivisie)
2018-08-24T18:00:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 1-3 ADO Den Haag (Eredivisie)

Eredivisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Feyenoord	9	7	2	0	21	23
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	6	2	1	10	20
3	PSV Eindhoven	9	6	1	2	15	19
4	Ajax	9	5	3	1	15	18
5	Twente	9	5	2	2	7	17
6	Fortuna Sittard	9	4	3	2	-1	15
7	Heerenveen	10	4	3	3	5	15
8	Groningen	9	4	2	3	3	14
9	GO Ahead Eagles	10	3	5	2	0	14
10	Cambuur	10	3	3	4	-3	12
11	Utrecht	10	3	3	4	-10	12
12	Excelsior	9	3	2	4	-2	11
13	NEC Nijmegen	9	2	4	3	-1	10
14	Sparta Rotterdam	9	2	3	4	-6	9
15	PEC Zwolle	10	2	2	6	-12	8
16	Telstar	10	1	3	6	-9	6
17	ADO Den Haag	10	1	3	6	-10	6
18	Willem II	10	0	2	8	-22	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.