· Analysis updated 15:47 UTC
Fortuna Sittard vs Apoel Nicosia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.56 for Apoel Nicosia, a combined total of 3.37. That distribution gives Fortuna Sittard the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.4% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fortuna Sittard home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Apoel Nicosia away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fortuna Sittard to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 23% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.56 for Apoel Nicosia, a combined 3.37 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.2%
Recent form
Fortuna Sittard
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Twente · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Genk · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Willem II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ajax · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · A vs ADO Den Haag · 3-2 (W)
Apoel Nicosia
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Apollon Limassol · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Anorthosis · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AEL · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AEK Larnaca · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Anorthosis · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.