Fortuna Sittard vs GO Ahead Eagles Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 2.23 for GO Ahead Eagles, a combined total of 4.20. That distribution gives GO Ahead Eagles the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.98 – 2.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Fortuna Sittard home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
GO Ahead Eagles away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Fortuna Sittard win35%

Draw20%

GO Ahead Eagles win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals79%

Over 3.5 goals60%

Both teams to score77%

Correct score

1–27.3%
2–27.2%
1–16.6%
2–16.5%
1–35.4%

Recent form

Fortuna Sittard

2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Twente · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Genk · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Willem II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ajax · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · A vs ADO Den Haag · 3-2 (W)

GO Ahead Eagles

2026-10-18T10:15:00.000Z · A vs PEC Zwolle · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Rotterdam · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Groningen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-01-11T13:30:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 2-2 GO Ahead Eagles (Eredivisie)
2025-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 2-2 GO Ahead Eagles (Eredivisie)
2025-01-10T19:00:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 0-3 GO Ahead Eagles (Eredivisie)
2024-08-11T12:30:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 2-0 GO Ahead Eagles (Eredivisie)
2024-05-03T18:00:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 0-0 GO Ahead Eagles (Eredivisie)
2023-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 0-3 GO Ahead Eagles (Eredivisie)
2023-04-23T12:30:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 0-2 GO Ahead Eagles (Eredivisie)
2023-01-07T19:00:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 0-2 GO Ahead Eagles (Eredivisie)
2022-04-24T14:45:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 1-0 GO Ahead Eagles (Eredivisie)
2021-10-31T19:00:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 3-4 GO Ahead Eagles (Eredivisie)

Eredivisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Feyenoord	9	7	2	0	21	23
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	6	2	1	10	20
3	PSV Eindhoven	9	6	1	2	15	19
4	Ajax	9	5	3	1	15	18
5	Twente	9	5	2	2	7	17
6	Fortuna Sittard	9	4	3	2	-1	15
7	Groningen	9	4	2	3	3	14
8	Heerenveen	9	3	3	3	4	12
9	GO Ahead Eagles	9	2	5	2	-1	11
10	Excelsior	9	3	2	4	-2	11
11	Utrecht	9	3	2	4	-10	11
12	NEC Nijmegen	9	2	4	3	-1	10
13	Sparta Rotterdam	9	2	3	4	-6	9
14	Cambuur	9	2	3	4	-8	9
15	PEC Zwolle	9	2	1	6	-12	7
16	Telstar	9	1	3	5	-8	6
17	ADO Den Haag	9	1	3	5	-9	6
18	Willem II	9	0	2	7	-17	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.