Fortuna Sittard Stadion · Analysis updated 19:32 UTC
Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.80 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives Fortuna Sittard the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.1% probability
Expected goals
1.98 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fortuna Sittard home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
PEC Zwolle away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fortuna Sittard to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 21% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.98 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.80 for PEC Zwolle, a combined 3.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.2%
- 2–18.1%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–27.2%
- 3–15.3%
Recent form
Fortuna Sittard
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Twente · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Genk · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Willem II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ajax · 1-5 (L)
PEC Zwolle
- 2026-10-24T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T10:15:00.000Z · H vs GO Ahead Eagles · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Groningen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord · 0-7 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 24 |
| 2 | AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 20 |
| 4 | Ajax | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 18 |
| 5 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 18 |
| 6 | Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Groningen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Cambuur | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Utrecht | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Excelsior | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.