Fortuna Sittard Stadion · Referee Robin Hensgens, Netherlands · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
Fortuna Sittard vs Twente Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 2.17 for Twente, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Twente the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Twente win
65.7% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 2.17
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fortuna Sittard home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Twente away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.6%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–19.1%
- 0–37.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.40 (model 46.4% vs market 38.5%, edge +7.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.40 | 38.5% | 46.4% | 2.16 | +7.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 80.3% | 80.7% | 1.24 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.80 | 19.1% | 19.4% | 5.15 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 1.40 | 65.6% | 65.7% | 1.52 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.75 | 34.4% | 34.4% | 2.91 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.11 | 85.3% | 85.1% | 1.18 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 6.00 | 15.3% | 15.0% | 6.67 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.50 | 61.5% | 53.6% | 1.87 | -7.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Fortuna Sittard
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Twente · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Genk · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Willem II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ajax · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · A vs ADO Den Haag · 3-2 (W)
Twente
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Sittard · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs PSV Eindhoven · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs ADO Den Haag · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Telstar · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-21T15:30:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 1-2 Twente (Eredivisie)
- 2025-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 2-3 Twente (Eredivisie)
- 2025-04-05T16:45:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 1-1 Twente (Eredivisie)
- 2024-11-23T20:00:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 1-2 Twente (Eredivisie)
- 2024-04-06T19:00:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 0-2 Twente (Eredivisie)
- 2023-10-08T12:30:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 0-3 Twente (Eredivisie)
- 2023-03-11T17:45:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 0-3 Twente (Eredivisie)
- 2022-08-14T12:30:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 0-3 Twente (Eredivisie)
- 2022-05-07T16:45:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 2-1 Twente (Eredivisie)
- 2021-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 2-1 Twente (Eredivisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Twente win, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.