· Analysis updated 20:09 UTC
Fortune Sacco vs Migori Youth Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Fortune Sacco and 1.08 for Migori Youth, a combined total of 1.93. That distribution gives Migori Youth the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.6% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fortune Sacco home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Migori Youth to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 28% / 31% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Fortune Sacco and 1.08 for Migori Youth, a combined 1.93 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 30% and both teams to score at 38%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.7%
- 0–014.6%
- 1–113.3%
- 1–012.4%
- 0–28.4%
Recent form
Fortune Sacco
- 2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs MCF · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Gucha Stars · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nzoia Sugar · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Equity Bank · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-22T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Talanta · 3-4 (L)
Migori Youth
- 2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs 3K · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Equity Bank · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kisumu All Stars · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs MCF · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-23T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kibera Black Stars · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sofapaka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Nairobi City Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Kariobangi Sharks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Nzoia Sugar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Naivas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Kibera Black Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Talanta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Kisumu All Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Fortune Sacco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Soy United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Equity Bank | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Luanda Villa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | MOFA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Kibera Soccer | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Kabati Youth FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Gucha Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Mfalme | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Kiminini Combined | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | BB FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Spitfire FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.