· Analysis updated 14:06 UTC
Fortune Sacco vs Mwatate United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Fortune Sacco and 0.85 for Mwatate United, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Fortune Sacco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fortune Sacco win
56.3% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fortune Sacco home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Mwatate United away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fortune Sacco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 24% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Fortune Sacco and 0.85 for Mwatate United, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–011.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Fortune Sacco
- 2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs MCF · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Gucha Stars · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nzoia Sugar · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Equity Bank · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-22T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Talanta · 3-4 (L)
Mwatate United
- 2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Equity Bank · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · H vs 3K · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs MCF · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-28T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Naivas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mombasa Elite · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sofapaka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Nairobi City Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Kariobangi Sharks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Nzoia Sugar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Naivas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Kibera Black Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Talanta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Kisumu All Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Fortune Sacco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Soy United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Equity Bank | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Luanda Villa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | MOFA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Kibera Soccer | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Kabati Youth FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Gucha Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Mfalme | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Kiminini Combined | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | BB FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Spitfire FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fortune Sacco win, at 56.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.