· Analysis updated 10:14 UTC
Forward vs Farsta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Forward and 1.53 for Farsta, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Forward the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.5% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Forward home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Farsta away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Forward to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 24% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Forward and 1.53 for Farsta, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.2%
- 1–07.0%
- 0–16.7%
Recent form
Forward
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Haninge · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Eker Örebro · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Sleipner · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlslund · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Lindo FF · 2-0 (W)
Farsta
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Lindo FF · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Syrianska FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fittja · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sleipner · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Karlslund · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · Forward 1-2 Farsta (Division 2 - Södra Svealand)
- 2026-06-06T12:00:00.000Z · Forward 1-2 Farsta (Division 2 - Södra Svealand)
- 2025-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · Forward 0-4 Farsta (Division 2 - Södra Svealand)
- 2025-06-06T11:00:00.000Z · Forward 1-2 Farsta (Division 2 - Södra Svealand)
Division 2 - Södra Svealand table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Farsta | 26 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 52 |
| 2 | Sleipner | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 51 |
| 3 | Nyköping | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 46 |
| 4 | Forward | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 45 |
| 5 | Rågsved | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 45 |
| 6 | Haninge | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 44 |
| 7 | Smedby | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 36 |
| 8 | Fittja | 26 | 11 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 36 |
| 9 | Örebro Syrianska | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 34 |
| 10 | Karlslund | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | -6 | 31 |
| 11 | Nacka Iliria | 26 | 9 | 3 | 14 | -16 | 30 |
| 12 | Syrianska FC | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | -17 | 26 |
| 13 | Lindo FF | 26 | 6 | 2 | 18 | -20 | 20 |
| 14 | Eker Örebro | 26 | 5 | 3 | 18 | -43 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.