Stadio Comunale Fossombrone · Analysis updated 09:56 UTC
Fossombrone vs Castelfidardo Calcio Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Fossombrone and 1.26 for Castelfidardo Calcio, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Fossombrone the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.0% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fossombrone home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Castelfidardo Calcio away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fossombrone to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 26% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Fossombrone and 1.26 for Castelfidardo Calcio, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.5%
- 1–27.7%
Recent form
Fossombrone
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Ascoli · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vigor Senigallia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lanciano FC · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Trestina · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs L'Aquila · 0-4 (L)
Castelfidardo Calcio
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sora · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fossombrone · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vigor Senigallia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Giulianova · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Maceratese · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone F table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L'Aquila | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 2 | Teramo | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 19 |
| 3 | Vigor Senigallia | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | Foligno Calcio | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Notaresco | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Ancona | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Atletico Ascoli | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Fossombrone | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 9 | Montecchio Gallo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Real Giulianova | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Lanciano FC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Termoli Calcio | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | Santegidiese | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Pietralunga | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Maceratese | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Recanatese | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Angelana | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Sporting Trestina | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.