Kwaraa Stadium · Analysis updated 14:49 UTC
Fountain Gate vs Young Africans Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.58 expected goals for Fountain Gate and 2.20 for Young Africans, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Young Africans the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Young Africans win
74.8% probability
Expected goals
0.58 – 2.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fountain Gate home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Young Africans away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Young Africans to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 8% / 17% / 75% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.58 goals for Fountain Gate and 2.20 for Young Africans, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
25%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–215.1%
- 0–113.7%
- 0–311.1%
- 1–28.7%
- 1–17.9%
Recent form
Fountain Gate
- 2026-08-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mbeya City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Namungo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mashujaa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Singida Black Stars · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-06-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Singida Black Stars · 4-3 (W)
Young Africans
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Simba · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Geita Gold · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gaborone United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gaborone United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-31T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fountain Gate · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligi kuu Bara table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | Simba | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Azam | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | Mashujaa | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Singida Black Stars | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Mbeya City | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Polisi Tanzania | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Dodoma Jiji | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Namungo | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Geita Gold | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | JKT Tanzania | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Coastal Union | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Tabora United | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Pamba Jiji | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Fountain Gate | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 16 | Kagera Sugar | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Young Africans win, at 74.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.