· Analysis updated 00:59 UTC
Foutoua vs Al Karama Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.58 expected goals for Foutoua and 1.60 for Al Karama, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Al Karama the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Karama win
62.2% probability
Expected goals
0.58 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Foutoua home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Karama to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 13% / 25% / 62% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.58 goals for Foutoua and 1.60 for Al Karama, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 37% and both teams to score at 35%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
38%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–118.1%
- 0–214.4%
- 0–011.3%
- 1–110.5%
- 1–28.4%
Recent form
Foutoua
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Shorta · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Wahda · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Damascus Al-Ahli · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Damascus Al-Ahli · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-06-28T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Khan Shaykhun SC · 4-3 (W)
Al Karama
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Karama | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Shorta | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Hottin | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 4 | Horriya | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Al Wahda | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Jaish | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Al Ittihad | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Damascus Al-Ahli | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Qamishli | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 10 | Al Nawaeir | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 11 | Wathba | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Tishreen | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 13 | Al Taliya | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 14 | Foutoua | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Karama win, at 62.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.