· Analysis updated 17:38 UTC
Foutoua vs Horriya Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.73 expected goals for Foutoua and 1.65 for Horriya, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Horriya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Horriya win
59.6% probability
Expected goals
0.73 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Foutoua home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Horriya away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.3%
- 0–212.7%
- 1–111.1%
- 0–09.3%
- 1–29.2%
Recent form
Foutoua
- 2026-07-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Damascus Al-Ahli · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-06-28T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Khan Shaykhun SC · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-06-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wathba · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-06-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jaish · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Karama · 2-4 (L)
Horriya
- 2026-07-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shorta · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-28T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Taliya · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tishreen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Damascus Al-Ahli · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-06-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ittihad · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-15T13:00:00.000Z · Foutoua 1-0 Horriya (Premier League)
- 2026-02-07T12:00:00.000Z · Foutoua 0-1 Horriya (Premier League)
- 2024-03-30T12:00:00.000Z · Foutoua 3-1 Horriya (Premier League)
- 2023-12-01T11:00:00.000Z · Foutoua 1-0 Horriya (Premier League)
- 2021-05-09T12:00:00.000Z · Foutoua 3-1 Horriya (Premier League)
- 2021-01-22T12:00:00.000Z · Foutoua 1-1 Horriya (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Karama | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 2 | Shorta | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Al Ittihad | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Damascus Al-Ahli | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Al Wahda | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Jaish | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Qamishli | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Al Nawaeir | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Hottin | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | Wathba | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Al Taliya | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Tishreen | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Horriya | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 14 | Foutoua | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Horriya win, at 59.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.