· Analysis updated 20:39 UTC
Fraga vs Brea Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Fraga and 0.99 for Brea, a combined total of 1.83. That distribution gives Brea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.0% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fraga home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Brea away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 30% / 32% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Fraga and 0.99 for Brea, a combined 1.83 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–016.0%
- 0–115.8%
- 1–013.5%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–27.8%
Recent form
Fraga
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Zaragoza II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Huesca II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Monzón · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Almudévar · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Robres · 2-1 (W)
Brea
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs La Almunia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:30:00.000Z · H vs CDJ Tamarite · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Andorra CF · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs CD Sietamo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Illueca · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Zaragoza II | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 2 | Ejea | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Cuarte | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Brea | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 5 | La Almunia | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Caspe | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Épila | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Fraga | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Atlético Monzón | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 10 | Binéfar | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Huesca II | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 12 | Illueca | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | CDJ Tamarite | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 14 | Almudévar | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Andorra CF | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | CD Sietamo | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Robres | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 2 |
| 18 | Belchite 97 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -15 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.